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鉴往以知来:从美日贸易冲突看中美贸易战风险

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2020年01月21日 19:41:22
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(风)(险)(提)(示)(:美)(国)(贸)(易)(保)(护)(政)(策)(的)(力)(度)(超)(出)(预)(期)(。
附)(录)(1:特)(朗)(普)(政)(府)(主)(要)(贸)(易)(鹰)(派)(官)(员)(一)(览)(
贸)(易)(代)(表)(莱)(特)(希)(泽)((RobertLighthizer)是)(贸)(易)(保)(护)(领)(域)(的)(老)(手)(、专)(家)(。美)(国)(贸)(易)(代)(表)(办)(公)(室)(是)(美)(国)(对)(外)(贸)(易)(谈)(判)(和)(协)(议)(主)(导)(部)(门)(,而)(莱)(特)(希)(泽)(是)(强)(硬)(的)(贸)(易)(保)(护)(主)(义)(者)(,其)(专)(长)(是)(代)(表)(美)(国)(大)(公)(司)(进)(行)(贸)(易)(诉)(讼)(,以)(及)(提)(供)(政)(策)(和)(立)(法)(方)(面)(的)(建)(议)(。他)(曾)(担)(任)(里)(根)(政)(府)(时)(期)(的)(副)(贸)(易)(代)(表)(,参)(与)(对)(日)(本)(出)(口)(到)(美)(国)(的)(汽)(车)(、摩)(托)(车)(、钢)(铁)(等)(产)(品)(提)(高)(关)(税)(和)(实)(行)(进)(口)(配)(额)(限)(制)(,从)(而)(迫)(使)(日)(本)(将)(部)(分)(汽)(车)(产)(业)(生)(产)(线)(迁)(至)(美)(国)(。他)(还)(曾)(长)(期)(从)(事)(律)(师)(职)(业)(,贸)(易)(法)(是)(其)(主)(要)(领)(域)(之)(一)(。近)(年)(,他)(曾)(多)(次)(批)(评)(中)(国)(通)(过)(“操)(纵)(贸)(易)(”从)(而)(使)(制)(造)(业)(的)(工)(作)(机)(会)(流)(入)(中)(国)(。莱)(特)(希)(泽)(曾)(建)(议)(美)(国)(政)(府)(挑)(战)(WTO规)(定)(的)(底)(线)(,启)(动)(了)(301调)(查)(。随)(着)(美)(国)(政)(策)(的)(重)(心)(转)(向)(贸)(易)(保)(护)(,莱)(特)(希)(泽)(作)(为)(贸)(易)(保)(护)(法)(律)(、实)(践)(双)(料)(专)(家)(的)(影)(响)(力)(可)(能)(明)(显)(上)(升)(。
彼)(得)(·纳)(瓦)(罗)((PeterNavarro)可)(能)(成)(为)(特)(朗)(普)(政)(府)(的)(重)(要)(智)(囊)(。2016年)(12月)(,特)(朗)(普)(宣)(布)(成)(立)(白)(宫)(国)(家)(贸)(易)(委)(员)(会)(,并)(提)(名)(加)(州)(大)(学)(欧)(文)(分)(校)(的)(彼)(得)(·纳)(瓦)(罗)(担)(任)(该)(委)(员)(会)(主)(任)(。纳)(瓦)(罗)(已)(离)(开)(学)(界)(多)(年)(,近)(年)(来)(以)(炮)(制)(、传)(播)(带)(有)(民)(粹)(倾)(向)(的)(扭)(曲)(的)(经)(济)(观)(点)(闻)(名)(,他)(抨)(击)(中)(国)(贸)(易)(为)(不)(正)(当)(竞)(争)(、呼)(吁)(对)(中)(国)(实)(施)(惩)(罚)(性)(关)(税)(,曾)(在)(其)("DeathByChina"的)(代)(表)(作)(中)(强)(调)(中)(国)(成)(为)(美)(国)(在)(经)(济)(、军)(事)(和)(政)(治)(等)(多)(方)(面)(的)(重)(大)(威)(胁)(。2017年)(4月)(,该)(委)(员)(会)(被)(解)(散)(,纳)(瓦)(罗)(对)(特)(朗)(普)(的)(影)(响)(力)(明)(显)(下)(降)(。而)(近)(期)(,特)(朗)(普)(有)(再)(次)(启)(用)(纳)(瓦)(罗)(的)(迹)(象)(。2018年)(2月)(底)(,华)(尔)(街)(日)(报)(称)(纳)(瓦)(罗)(将)(被)(任)(命)(为)(总)(统)(助)(理)(,而)(科)(恩)(的)(辞)(职)(,意)(味)(着)(纳)(瓦)(罗)(对)(美)(国)(总)(统)(的)(影)(响)(力)(可)(能)(会)(明)(显)(上)(升)(。相)(对)(于)(莱)(特)(希)(泽)(在)(贸)(易)(保)(护)(方)(面)(的)(专)(业)(性)(,纳)(瓦)(罗)(更)(接)(近)(智)(囊)(的)(角)(色)(,他)(将)(贸)(易)(保)(护)(、尤)(其)(是)(对)(中)(国)(的)(敌)(视)(上)(升)(到)(“理)(论)(”的)(高)(度)(,由)(此)(而)(获)(得)(特)(朗)(普)(的)(信)(任)(。
美)(国)(商)(务)(部)(长)(威)(布)(尔)(·罗)(斯)((WilburRoss)作)(为)(贸)(易)(保)(护)(的)(执)(行)(者)(。商)(务)(部)(主)(要)(负)(责)(执)(行)(由)(美)(国)(贸)(易)(代)(表)(办)(公)(室)(所)(制)(定)(的)(贸)(易)(保)(护)(措)(施)(,例)(如)(反)(倾)(销)(、反)(补)(贴)(的)(调)(查)(等)(。罗)(斯)(也)(曾)(公)(开)(声)(称)(那)(些)(实)(行)(不)(公)(平)(贸)(易)(的)(国)(家)(应)(当)(受)(到)(“严)(厉)(惩)(罚)(”,而)(中)(国)(是)(世)(界)(上)(“保)(护)(主)(义)(最)(严)(重)(”的)(国)(家)(。与)(纳)(瓦)(罗)(和)(莱)(特)(希)(泽)(在)(贸)(易)(保)(护)(方)(面)(的)(偏)(执)(有)(所)(不)(同)(,罗)(斯)(的)(思)(维)(更)(接)(近)(他)(的)(商)(人)(角)(色)(,而)(且)(他)(信)(奉)(自)(由)(市)(场)(原)(则)(。尽)(管)(支)(持)(对)(美)(国)(的)(贸)(易)(协)(定)(进)(行)(重)(新)(谈)(判)(,但)(对)(外)(不)(够)(强)(硬)(,使)(得)(特)(朗)(普)(开)(始)(逐)(渐)(疏)(远)(他)(。在)(贸)(易)(保)(护)(方)(面)(,罗)(斯)(对)(特)(朗)(普)(的)(影)(响)(力)(可)(能)(下)(降)(,沦)(为)(执)(行)(者)(的)(角)(色)(。
附)(录)(2:中)(国)(对)(美)(国)(的)(进)(出)(口)(结)(构)(
中)(国)(对)(美)(国)(的)(出)(口)(结)(构)(:两)(大)(类)(制)(成)(品)(是)(主)(要)(关)(注)(点)(。中)(国)(对)(美)(国)(出)(口)(依)(赖)(度)(较)(高)(且)(出)(口)(额)(较)(大)(的)(主)(要)(集)(中)(在)(两)(大)(类)(产)(品)(。2017年)(,中)(国)(对)(美)(国)(出)(口)(占)(总)(出)(口)(的)(比)(重)(为)(19.0%,但)(与)(美)(国)(大)(量)(进)(口)(产)(品)(高)(度)(依)(赖)(中)(国)(有)(所)(不)(同)(,分)(产)(品)(来)(看)(,中)(国)(各)(类)(产)(品)(对)(美)(国)(的)(出)(口)(依)(赖)(度)(基)(本)(都)(低)(于)(40%。通)(过)(中)(国)(对)(美)(国)(的)(出)(口)(依)(赖)(度)(来)(看)(,只)(有)(电)(机)(、电)(气)(设)(备)(及)(其)(零)(件)(,录)(音)(机)(及)(放)(声)(机)(、电)(视)(图)(像)(、声)(音)(的)(录)(制)(和)(重)(放)(设)(备)(及)(其)(零)(件)(、附)(件)(和)(锅)(炉)(、机)(器)(、机)(械)(器)(具)(及)(其)(零)(件)(、核)(反)(应)(堆)(两)(个)(大)(类)(产)(品)(的)(依)(赖)(度)(较)(高)(,分)(别)(为)(23.1%和)(16.8%,且)(出)(口)(金)(额)(较)(大)(。从)(这)(个)(角)(度)(出)(发)(,美)(国)(针)(对)(中)(国)(进)(行)(贸)(易)(战)(,可)(以)(较)(为)(容)(易)(的)(进)(行)(“集)(中)(火)(力)(”攻)(击)(。美)(国)(发)(动)(的)(301知)(识)(产)(权)(调)(查)(,也)(主)(要)(是)(针)(对)(这)(两)(大)(类)(中)(的)(产)(品)(。不)(过)(,由)(于)(中)(国)(这)(两)(大)(类)(产)(品)(对)(美)(国)(的)(出)(口)(依)(赖)(度)(与)(整)(体)(的)(出)(口)(依)(赖)(度)(相)(差)(并)(不)(大)(,贸)(易)(战)(起)(到)(的)(效)(果)(可)(能)(不)(会)(如)(美)(国)(所)(愿)(。
中)(国)(从)(美)(国)(的)(进)(口)(结)(构)(:农)(产)(品)(可)(能)(是)(突)(破)(口)(。对)(于)(该)(问)(题)(,我)(们)(从)(美)(国)(的)(贸)(易)(数)(据)(进)(行)(分)(析)(。可)(以)(发)(现)(,美)(国)(对)(中)(国)(出)(口)(依)(赖)(度)(高)(的)(三)(大)(类)(产)(品)(主)(要)(是)(农)(产)(品)(和)(林)(产)(品)(,而)(对)(中)(国)(出)(口)(金)(额)(较)(大)(的)(机)(械)(设)(备)(等)(,对)(中)(国)(的)(依)(赖)(度)(则)(较)(低)(。尽)(管)(美)(国)(农)(、林)(产)(品)(的)(出)(口)(额)(并)(不)(大)(,但)(农)(业)(在)(某)(些)(州)(扮)(演)(着)(重)(要)(角)(色)(,比)(如)(印)(第)(安)(纳)(、爱)(荷)(华)(和)(威)(斯)(康)(辛)(等)(,意)(味)(着)(这)(些)(州)(的)(选)(票)(很)(大)(程)(度)(上)(被)(农)(民)(所)(左)(右)(。因)(此)(,中)(国)(从)(美)(国)(每)(年)(进)(口)(的)(约)(140亿)(美)(元)(大)(豆)(很)(可)(能)(成)(为)(制)(衡)(美)(国)(贸)(易)(制)(裁)(的)(关)(键)(工)(具)(。今)(年)(2月)(,中)(国)(商)(务)(部)(已)(对)(原)(产)(于)(美)(国)(的)(进)(口)(高)(粱)(进)(行)(反)(倾)(销)(和)(反)(补)(贴)(立)(案)(调)(查)(,对)(进)(口)(金)(额)(更)(大)(的)(美)(国)(大)(豆)(加)(征)(关)(税)(可)(能)(是)(一)(个)(有)(力)(的)(备)(选)(项)(。除)(了)(农)(产)(品)(以)(外)(,中)(国)(还)(可)(以)(选)(择)(美)(国)(的)(波)(音)(飞)(机)(等)(产)(品)(对)(美)(国)(的)(贸)(易)(保)(护)(举)(措)(进)(行)(反)(击)(。而)(且)(美)(国)(对)(中)(国)(的)(服)(务)(贸)(易)(为)(顺)(差)(,中)(国)(也)(可)(以)(借)(服)(务)(贸)(易)(针)(对)(美)(国)(进)(行)(还)(击)(。
如)(果)(您)(想)(对)(特)(朗)(普)(贸)(易)(保)(护)(问)(题)(有)(更)(加)(深)(度)(和)(全)(面)(的)(了)(解)(或)(重)(温)(,请)(点)(击)(以)(下)(链)(接)(阅)(读)(我)(们)(以)(往)(的)(相)(关)(报)(告)(。
大)(萧)(条)(时)(期)(从)(美)(国)(蔓)(延)(的)(贸)(易)(战)(
80年)(代)(美)(国)(与)(日)(本)(之)(间)(的)(贸)(易)(冲)(突)(
特)(朗)(普)(贸)(易)(保)(护)(政)(策)(对)(各)(个)(贸)(易)(伙)(伴)(的)(潜)(在)(影)(响)(
特)(朗)(普)(贸)(易)(保)(护)(政)(策)(对)(中)(国)(出)(口)(总)(量)(、出)(口)(分)(行)(业)(及)(经)(济)(的)(潜)(在)(影)(响)(
美)(国)(贸)(易)(制)(裁)(的)(“301条)(款)(”是)(个)(啥)(?
特)(朗)(普)(能)(将)(中)(国)(定)(汇)(率)(操)(纵)(国)(吗)(?
证)(券)(研)(究)(报)(告)(:《鉴)(往)(以)(知)(来)(:从)(美)(日)(贸)(易)(冲)(突)(看)(中)(美)(贸)(易)(战)(风)(险)(》
对)(外)(发)(布)(时)(间)(:2018年)(3月)(24日)(
贾)(潇)(君)(执)(业)(证)(书)(编)(号)(:SACS0190512070005
研)(究)(助)(理)(:肖)(金)(川)(
自)(媒)(体)(信)(息)(披)(露)(及)(重)(要)(声)(明)(
【使)(用)(本)(研)(究)(报)(告)(的)(风)(险)(提)(示)(及)(法)(律)(声)(明)(】
本)(报)(告)(所)(载)(资)(料)(的)(来)(源)(被)(认)(为)(是)(可)(靠)(的)(,但)(本)(公)(司)(不)(保)(证)(其)(准)(确)(性)(或)(完)(整)(性)(,也)(不)(保)(证)(所)(包)(含)(的)(信)(息)(和)(建)(议)(不)(会)(发)(生)(任)(何)(变)(更)(。本)(公)(司)(并)(不)(对)(使)(用)(本)(报)(告)(所)(包)(含)(的)(材)(料)(产)(生)(的)(任)(何)(直)(接)(或)(间)(接)(损)(失)(或)(与)(此)(相)(关)(的)(其)(他)(任)(何)(损)(失)(承)(担)(任)(何)(责)(任)(。
本)(报)(告)(的)(版)(权)(归)(本)(公)(司)(所)(有)(。本)(公)(司)(对)(本)(报)(告)(保)(留)(一)(切)(权)(利)(。除)(非)(另)(有)(书)(面)(显)(示)(,否)(则)(本)(报)(告)(中)(的)(所)(有)(材)(料)(的)(版)(权)(均)(属)(本)(公)(司)(。未)(经)(本)(公)(司)(事)(先)(书)(面)(授)(权)(,本)(报)(告)(的)(任)(何)(部)(分)(均)(不)(得)(以)(任)(何)(方)(式)(制)(作)(任)(何)(形)(式)(的)(拷)(贝)(、复)(印)(件)(或)(复)(制)(品)(,或)(再)(次)(分)(发)(给)(任)(何)(其)(他)(人)(,或)(以)(任)(何)(侵)(犯)(本)(公)(司)(版)(权)(的)(其)(他)(方)(式)(使)(用)(。未)(经)(授)(权)(的)(转)(载)(,本)(公)(司)(不)(承)(担)(任)(何)(转)(载)(责)(任)(。
【免)(责)(声)(明)(】
市)(场)(有)(风)(险)(,投)(资)(需)(谨)(慎)(。本)(平)(台)(所)(载)(内)(容)(和)(意)(见)(仅)(供)(参)(考)(,不)(构)(成)(对)(任)(何)(人)(的)(投)(资)(建)(议)((专)(家)(、嘉)(宾)(或)(其)(他)(兴)(业)(证)(券)(股)(份)(有)(限)(公)(司)(以)(外)(的)(人)(士)(的)(演)(讲)(、交)(流)(或)(会)(议)(纪)(要)(等)(仅)(代)(表)(其)(本)(人)(或)(其)(所)(在)(机)(构)(之)(观)(点)(),亦)(不)(构)(成)(任)(何)(保)(证)(,接)(收)(人)(不)(应)(单)(纯)(依)(靠)(本)(资)(料)(的)(信)(息)(而)(取)(代)(自)(身)(的)(独)(立)(判)(断)(,应)(自)(主)(做)(出)(投)(资)(决)(策)(并)(自)(行)(承)(担)(风)(险)(。根)(据)(《证)(券)(期)(货)(投)(资)(者)(适)(当)(性)(管)(理)(办)(法)(》,本)(平)(台)(内)(容)(仅)(供)(兴)(业)(证)(券)(股)(份)(有)(限)(公)(司)(客)(户)(中)(的)(专)(业)(投)(资)(者)(使)(用)(,若)(您)(并)(非)(专)(业)(投)(资)(者)(,为)(保)(证)(服)(务)(质)(量)(、控)(制)(投)(资)(风)(险)(,请)(勿)(订)(阅)(或)(转)(载)(本)(平)(台)(中)(的)(信)(息)(,本)(资)(料)(难)(以)(设)(置)(访)(问)(权)(限)(,若)(给)(您)(造)(成)(不)(便)(,还)(请)(见)(谅)(。在)(任)(何)(情)(况)(下)(,作)(者)(及)(作)(者)(所)(在)(团)(队)(、兴)(业)(证)(券)(股)(份)(有)(限)(公)(司)(不)(对)(任)(何)(人)(因)(使)(用)(本)(平)(台)(中)(的)(任)(何)(内)(容)(所)(引)(致)(的)(任)(何)(损)(失)(负)(任)(何)(责)(任)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
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