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国泰君安:进出口低迷订单回升

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年12月18日 00:27:41
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(  国)(泰)(君)(安)(认)(为)(,10月)(进)(出)(口)(增)(速)(维)(持)(偏)(弱)(态)(势)(,出)(口)(增)(速)(下)(滑)(和)(出)(口)(订)(单)(上)(升)(出)(现)(一)(定)(背)(离)(,此)(前)(公)(布)(的)(财)(新)(PMI大)(幅)(回)(升)(,背)(离)(原)(因)(可)(能)(是)(时)(滞)(,通)(常)(出)(口)(订)(单)(到)(出)(口)(增)(速)(传)(导)(存)(在)(一)(定)(时)(滞)(。对)(美)(国)(出)(口)(较)(高)(,对)(欧)(日)(出)(口)(较)(低)(,显)(示)(了)(当)(前)(美)(国)(和)(其)(他)(经)(济)(体)(的)(增)(速)(差)(异)(,也)(凸)(显)(了)(汇)(率)(差)(异)(,人)(民)(币)(兑)(美)(元)((6.3528,0.0000,0.00%)汇)(率)(保)(持)(基)(本)(稳)(定)(,对)(非)(美)(汇)(率)(升)(值)(较)(多)(,对)(出)(口)(构)(成)(了)(一)(定)(压)(力)(。贸)(易)(顺)(差)(扩)(大)(是)(10月)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(增)(加)(重)(要)(原)(因)(,对)(4季)(度)(GDP数)(字)(构)(成)(支)(撑)(,并)(有)(利)(于)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(稳)(定)(。考)(虑)(到)(微)(刺)(激)(开)(始)(逐)(步)(见)(效)(,维)(持)(经)(济)(短)(期)(暂)(稳)(,中)(期)(L型)(判)(断)(,但)(长)(期)(下)(行)(压)(力)(仍)(大)(,有)(赖)(改)(革)(放)(活)(。
  出)(口)(增)(速)(有)(所)(下)(滑)(。10月)(美)(元)(计)(价)(的)(中)(国)(出)(口)(增)(速)(-6.9%,比)(9月)(下)(滑)(3.2个)(百)(分)(点)(,低)(于)(市)(场)(预)(期)(。出)(口)(增)(速)(下)(滑)(和)(出)(口)(订)(单)(上)(升)(出)(现)(一)(定)(背)(离)(,此)(前)(公)(布)(的)(财)(新)(PMI大)(幅)(回)(升)(,背)(离)(原)(因)(可)(能)(是)(时)(滞)(,通)(常)(出)(口)(订)(单)(到)(出)(口)(增)(速)(传)(导)(存)(在)(一)(定)(时)(滞)(。
  对)(美)(国)(出)(口)(保)(持)(增)(长)(,对)(欧)(盟)(、日)(本)(出)(口)(下)(降)(,原)(因)(是)(经)(济)(和)(汇)(率)(差)(异)(。按)(人)(民)(币)(计)(价)(看)(,1-10月)(,中)(国)(对)(美)(出)(口)(增)(速)(5.8%,比)(9月)(下)(滑)(0.4个)(百)(分)(点)(;对)(欧)(盟)(出)(口)(增)(速)(-3.7%,比)(9月)(下)(滑)(0.4个)(百)(分)(点)(,对)(日)(本)(出)(口)(增)(速)(-9%,比)(9月)(上)(升)(0.5个)(百)(分)(点)(;对)(东)(盟)(出)(口)(增)(速)(4.2%,比)(9月)(回)(落)(1.6个)(百)(分)(点)(。可)(见)(,对)(美)(国)(出)(口)(较)(高)(,对)(欧)(日)(出)(口)(较)(低)(,显)(示)(了)(当)(前)(美)(国)(和)(其)(他)(经)(济)(体)(的)(增)(速)(差)(异)(,也)(凸)(显)(了)(汇)(率)(差)(异)(,人)(民)(币)(兑)(美)(元)(汇)(率)(保)(持)(基)(本)(稳)(定)(,对)(非)(美)(汇)(率)(升)(值)(较)(多)(,对)(出)(口)(构)(成)(了)(一)(定)(压)(力)(。
  一)(般)(贸)(易)(出)(口)(正)(增)(长)(,加)(工)(贸)(易)(地)(位)(下)(降)(。1-10月)(,我)(国)(一)(般)(贸)(易)(出)(口)(增)(长)(2.3%,增)(速)(高)(于)(总)(体)(出)(口)(增)(速)(。加)(工)(贸)(易)(进)(出)(口)(6.26万)(亿)(元)(,下)(降)(10.6%,占)(我)(外)(贸)(总)(值)(的)(31.4%,比)(去)(年)(同)(期)(回)(落)(0.9个)(百)(分)(点)(。
  进)(口)(增)(速)(维)(持)(低)(位)(,跟)(内)(需)(偏)(弱)(和)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(价)(格)(疲)(软)(有)(关)(。10月)(,美)(元)(计)(价)(的)(中)(国)(进)(口)(增)(速)(-18.8%,比)(9月)(回)(升)(1.6个)(百)(分)(点)(,但)(仍)(处)(于)(低)(位)(,这)(主)(要)(和)(内)(需)(偏)(弱)(、大)(宗)(商)(品)(价)(格)(疲)(软)(有)(关)(,从)(中)(采)(PMI、发)(电)(耗)(煤)(等)(数)(据)(来)(看)(,国)(内)(经)(济)(总)(体)(仍)(低)(迷)(,另)(外)(,10月)(原)(油)(、铜)(、铁)(矿)(石)(等)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(价)(格)(涨)(跌)(互)(现)(,低)(位)(盘)(整)(。
  劳)(动)(密)(集)(型)(产)(品)(出)(口)(增)(速)(下)(降)(,原)(油)(粮)(食)(等)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(进)(口)(量)(增)(加)(。(1)机)(电)(产)(品)(出)(口)(增)(长)(,劳)(动)(密)(集)(型)(产)(品)(出)(口)(增)(速)(下)(降)(。1-10月)(,我)(国)(机)(电)(产)(品)(出)(口)(6.58万)(亿)(元)(,增)(长)(1.4%,占)(出)(口)(总)(值)(的)(57.4%。7大)(类)(劳)(动)(密)(集)(型)(产)(品)(合)(计)(出)(口)(2.41万)(亿)(元)(,下)(降)(2.5%,占)(出)(口)(总)(值)(的)(21%。此)(外)(,钢)(材)(出)(口)(9213.5万)(吨)(,增)(加)(24.7%。(2)原)(油)(、粮)(食)(、成)(品)(油)(等)(主)(要)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(进)(口)(量)(增)(加)(,铁)(矿)(砂)(、煤)(、钢)(材)(进)(口)(量)(减)(少)(跌)(。1-10月)(,我)(国)(进)(口)(原)(油)(2.75亿)(吨)(,增)(加)(8.9%,进)(口)(粮)(食)(1.03亿)(吨)(,增)(加)(27.4%;煤)(1.7亿)(吨)(,减)(少)(29.9%;成)(品)(油)(2517.7万)(吨)(,增)(加)(3.1%;钢)(材)(1068.4万)(吨)(,减)(少)(11.7%;铁)(矿)(砂)(7.75亿)(吨)(,减)(少)(0.5%,进)(口)(均)(价)(为)(每)(吨)(382.2元)(,下)(跌)(40.6%;
  顺)(差)(扩)(大)(是)(10月)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(增)(加)(重)(要)(原)(因)(,有)(利)(于)(国)(内)(资)(金)(面)(和)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(稳)(定)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(宽)(松)(方)(向)(不)(变)(,留)(意)(节)(奏)(变)(化)(。(1)中)(国)(10月)(贸)(易)(顺)(差)(扩)(大)(至)(616亿)(美)(元)(,是)(10月)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(增)(加)(重)(要)(原)(因)(,此)(前)(公)(布)(的)(10月)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(意)(外)(增)(加)(114亿)(美)(元)(,10月)(风)(险)(偏)(好)(改)(善)(、资)(本)(流)(出)(减)(少)(也)(是)(重)(要)(原)(因)(。(2)贸)(易)(顺)(差)(扩)(大)(有)(利)(于)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(稳)(定)(,当)(前)(美)(元)(强)(劲)(对)(国)(内)(流)(动)(性)(和)(人)(民)(币)(构)(成)(压)(力)(,但)(高)(顺)(差)(提)(供)(了)(一)(定)(缓)(冲)(,历)(史)(经)(验)(表)(明)(,长)(期)(贸)(易)(顺)(差)(国)(货)(币)(普)(遍)(强)(劲)(。(3)较)(高)(贸)(易)(顺)(差)(数)(据)(将)(对)(四)(季)(度)(GDP数)(据)(形)(成)(支)(撑)(,因)(GDP核)(算)(中)(主)(要)(考)(虑)(净)(出)(口)(。
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