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【券商研报】从劳动力人口结构看中美贸易顺差

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年07月18日 15:40:31
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(人)(力)(成)(本)(低)(使)(得)(劳)(动)(密)(集)(型)(的)(低)(端)(制)(造)(业)(发)(达)(,所)(以)(过)(去)(中)(国)(对)(外)(贸)(易)(得)(到)(了)(迅)(速)(发)(展)(。除)(去)(08年)(金)(融)(危)(机)(和)(15年)(受)(外)(需)(影)(响)(,其)(余)(时)(间)(内)(中)(国)(出)(口)(增)(速)(始)(终)(保)(持)(较)(高)(水)(平)(,而)(且)(出)(口)(产)(品)(以)(附)(加)(值)(低)(的)(制)(造)(业)(为)(主)(,也)(符)(合)(过)(往)(中)(国)(人)(力)(成)(本)(低)(的)(比)(较)(优)(势)(。
美)(国)(经)(济)(的)(发)(展)(同)(样)(得)(益)(于)(人)(口)(红)(利)(,但)(该)(部)(分)(人)(口)(红)(利)(重)(要)(补)(充)(力)(量)(来)(自)(于)(年)(轻)(移)(民)(。过)(往)(100多)(年)(中)(,美)(国)(劳)(动)(人)(口)(占)(比)(始)(终)(保)(持)(60%左)(右)(相)(对)(稳)(定)(水)(平)(,好)(于)(日)(本)(、欧)(洲)(等)(发)(达)(国)(家)(的)(人)(口)(老)(龄)(化)(趋)(势)(。根)(据)(《人)(口)(结)(构)(与)(国)(际)(贸)(易)(》(经)(济)(研)(究)(),外)(国)(移)(民)(总)(体)(相)(对)(年)(轻)(,以)(及)(国)(内)(部)(分)(族)(裔)(生)(育)(率)(相)(对)(高)(企)(,使)(得)(美)(国)(在)(过)(去)(几)(十)(年)(中)(人)(口)(年)(龄)(结)(构)(比)(较)(稳)(定)(。
二)(、中)(国)(工)(程)(师)(红)(利)(将)(减)(弱)(人)(口)(结)(构)(转)(型)(对)(出)(口)(的)(负)(面)(影)(响)(
随)(着)(生)(育)(高)(峰)(的)(过)(去)(,近)(年)(中)(国)(青)(壮)(年)(劳)(动)(力)(人)(口)(比)(例)(有)(所)(下)(降)(,人)(口)(结)(构)(转)(型)(大)(方)(向)(上)(不)(利)(于)(中)(国)(出)(口)(,但)(二)(孩)(政)(策)(的)(实)(施)(边)(际)(上)(将)(对)(人)(口)(老)(龄)(化)(略)(有)(改)(善)(作)(用)(。此)(外)(,不)(能)(忽)(视)(中)(国)(目)(前)(拥)(有)(的)(巨)(大)(工)(程)(师)(红)(利)(,这)(将)(对)(推)(动)(制)(造)(业)(转)(型)(升)(级)(发)(挥)(重)(要)(作)(用)(。
(1)二)(孩)(政)(策)(边)(际)(改)(善)(老)(龄)(化)(,但)(老)(龄)(化)(大)(趋)(势)(无)(法)(避)(免)(
年)(初)(国)(家)(统)(计)(局)(公)(布)(的)(出)(生)(人)(口)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,2017年)(出)(生)(人)(口)(为)(1723万)(,不)(及)(2016年)(的)(1786万)(人)(和)(预)(期)(值)(,12.43‰出)(生)(率)(较)(2016年)(的)(12.95‰有)(所)(下)(滑)(,似)(乎)(全)(面)(二)(孩)(政)(策)(并)(没)(有)(带)(来)(出)(生)(人)(口)(的)(增)(多)(和)(出)(生)(率)(的)(上)(升)(。但)(经)(过)(我)(们)(测)(算)(发)(现)(,育)(龄)(妇)(女)(年)(龄)(结)(构)(变)(化)(和)(人)(数)(降)(低)(导)(致)(一)(孩)(出)(生)(人)(数)(大)(幅)(下)(降)(,相)(反)(如)(果)(没)(有)(全)(面)(放)(开)(二)(孩)(,人)(口)(出)(生)(人)(数)(将)(显)(著)(下)(降)(。
通)(过)(测)(算)(总)(和)(生)(育)(率)(对)(未)(来)(人)(口)(走)(势)(进)(行)(预)(测)(。按)(照)(我)(们)(的)(测)(算)(,受)(二)(孩)(政)(策)(影)(响)(,2018年)(出)(生)(人)(口)(数)(将)(出)(现)(增)(加)(。而)(从)(2018年)(往)(后)(,随)(着)(积)(压)(效)(应)(逐)(渐)(释)(放)(,2019年)(至)(2020年)(全)(面)(二)(孩)(政)(策)(对)(其)(出)(生)(人)(数)(的)(带)(动)(作)(用)(逐)(渐)(下)(降)(,同)(时)(伴)(随)(着)(生)(育)(旺)(盛)(期)(育)(龄)(妇)(女)((20~29岁)()人)(数)(持)(续)(大)(幅)(降)(低)(,一)(孩)(出)(生)(人)(口)(和)(二)(孩)(出)(生)(人)(口)(均)(可)(能)(会)(较)(今)(年)(下)(滑)(,人)(口)(出)(生)(数)(可)(能)(会)(出)(现)(一)(定)(程)(度)(的)(减)(少)(,但)(是)(相)(对)(依)(然)(比)(较)(平)(稳)(。2020年)(以)(后)(,二)(孩)(积)(压)(效)(应)(基)(本)(释)(放)(完)(毕)(,这)(时)(总)(和)(生)(育)(率)(将)(趋)(于)(平)(稳)(。因)(此)(全)(面)(二)(孩)(政)(策)(可)(以)(在)(一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(放)(缓)(中)(国)(人)(口)(老)(龄)(化)(的)(步)(伐)(,那)(么)(边)(际)(上)(也)(会)(减)(弱)(中)(国)(老)(龄)(化)(对)(出)(口)(的)(短)(期)(负)(面)(影)(响)(,但)(长)(期)(中)(国)(老)(龄)(化)(的)(大)(趋)(势)(无)(法)(避)(免)(。
(2)未)(来)(工)(程)(师)(红)(利)(就)(是)(以)(前)(的)(低)(端)(制)(造)(业)(人)(口)(红)(利)(
99年)(开)(始)(中)(国)(进)(入)(高)(校)(扩)(招)(期)(,自)(此)(中)(国)(每)(年)(高)(校)(毕)(业)(生)(和)(研)(究)(生)(毕)(业)(生)(均)(保)(持)(快)(速)(增)(长)(,04年)(二)(者)(分)(别)(为)(120万)(和)(15万)(左)(右)(水)(平)(,而)(16年)(二)(者)(分)(别)(增)(至)(400万)(和)(56万)(左)(右)(水)(平)(。高)(校)(毕)(业)(生)(数)(量)(增)(长)(为)(中)(国)(提)(供)(了)(源)(源)(不)(断)(的)(所)(谓)(工)(程)(师)(红)(利)(,过)(去)(十)(年)(中)(国)(大)(中)(型)(高)(技)(术)(企)(业)(和)(制)(造)(业)(企)(业)(研)(发)(费)(用)(复)(合)(增)(长)(率)(高)(达)(24%。更)(加)(直)(观)(的)(结)(果)(就)(是)(,中)(国)(专)(业)(论)(文)(和)(专)(利)(数)(量)(位)(居)(世)(界)(第)(二)(。
与)(此)(同)(时)(,中)(国)(目)(前)(年)(轻)(工)(程)(师)(的)(工)(资)(水)(平)(并)(没)(有)(明)(显)(同)(步)(增)(长)(。一)(个)(例)(子)(就)(是)(科)(技)(公)(司)(独)(角)(兽)(在)(上)(市)(前)(,压)(缩)(员)(工)(工)(资)(而)(给)(股)(权)(进)(而)(改)(善)(财)(务)(报)(表)(。另)(外)(,我)(们)(以)(信)(息)(传)(输)(、计)(算)(机)(服)(务)(和)(软)(件)(业)(作)(为)(新)(兴)(产)(业)(代)(表)(,而)(近)(十)(年)(该)(行)(业)(平)(均)(工)(资)(及)(水)(平)(相)(较)(于)(制)(造)(业)(大)(类)(的)(平)(均)(工)(资)(优)(势)(有)(所)(下)(降)(,也)(从)(侧)(面)(说)(明)(了)(中)(国)(工)(程)(师)(成)(本)(低)(廉)(。所)(以)(未)(来)(中)(国)(工)(程)(师)(的)(数)(量)(和)(工)(资)(成)(本)(优)(势)(将)(继)(续)(保)(持)(,将)(带)(动)(国)(内)(制)(造)(业)(产)(业)(升)(级)(,未)(来)(工)(程)(师)(红)(利)(就)(是)(以)(前)(的)(低)(端)(制)(造)(业)(人)(口)(红)(利)(。
三)(、未)(来)(移)(民)(优)(势)(减)(弱)(,国)(内)(失)(业)(率)(创)(历)(史)(新)(低)(,难)(以)(满)(足)(美)(国)(制)(造)(业)(复)(兴)(所)(需)(劳)(动)(力)(要)(求)(
川)(普)(总)(统)(经)(济)(政)(策)(主)(要)(集)(中)(基)(建)(刺)(激)(和)(减)(税)(,目)(前)(来)(看)(减)(税)(政)(策)(已)(经)(得)(到)(落)(实)(。很)(多)(美)(国)(企)(业)(也)(表)(态)(要)(回)(归)(美)(国)(,但)(制)(造)(业)(回)(流)(需)(要)(相)(应)(的)(劳)(动)(力)(人)(口)(支)(撑)(。以)(下)(,我)(们)(从)(劳)(动)(市)(场)(结)(构)(和)(移)(民)(两)(个)(角)(度)(分)(析)(:
首)(先)(,5月)(美)(国)(失)(业)(率)(3.8%,处)(于)(历)(史)(低)(位)(水)(平)(,而)(且)(劳)(动)(力)(参)(与)(率)(自)(14年)(以)(来)(保)(持)(63%左)(右)(相)(对)(稳)(定)(水)(平)(,表)(明)(美)(国)(就)(业)(市)(场)(相)(对)(充)(分)(,未)(来)(美)(国)(劳)(动)(力)(市)(场)(新)(增)(劳)(动)(力)(有)(限)(。
其)(次)(,川)(普)(总)(统)(的)(移)(民)(政)(策)(相)(对)(严)(厉)(,不)(利)(于)(补)(充)(劳)(动)(力)(。移)(民)(政)(策)(可)(以)(区)(分)(为)(针)(对)(合)(法)(移)(民)(和)(非)(法)(移)(民)(,市)(场)(认)(为)(川)(普)(总)(统)(移)(民)(政)(策)(相)(对)(严)(厉)(主)(要)(针)(对)(非)(法)(移)(民)(,比)(如)(争)(议)(很)(大)(的)(修)(边)(境)(提)(案)(,6月)(20日)(美)(国)(总)(统)(特)(朗)(普)(签)(署)(暂)(停)(非)(法)(入)(境)(者)(与)(未)(成)(年)(子)(女)(强)(制)(分)(离)(的)(行)(政)(命)(令)(,引)(致)(巨)(大)(舆)(论)(压)(力)(,被)(迫)(于)(21日)(下)(令)(联)(邦)(政)(府)(多)(部)(门)(协)(助)(非)(法)(入)(境)(者)(“骨)(肉)(团)(聚)(”。
但)(实)(际)(上)(,川)(普)(对)(合)(法)(移)(民)(的)(态)(度)(也)(较)(为)(严)(厉)(,比)(如)(今)(年)(1月)(底)(川)(普)(在)(首)(份)(国)(情)(咨)(文)(中)(提)(出)(终)(止)(以)(家)(庭)(为)(单)(位)(的)(“链)(式)(移)(民)(”(chainmigration),也)(就)(是)(只)(允)(许)(美)(国)(公)(民)(的)(“核)(心)(家)(庭)(成)(员)(”,即)(配)(偶)(和)(未)(成)(年)(子)(女)(跟)(着)(移)(民)(。大)(砍)(亲)(属)(移)(民)(,未)(来)(美)(国)(开)(放)(的)(移)(民)(环)(境)(将)(不)(在)(,毫)(无)(疑)(问)(会)(对)(高)(技)(术)(人)(才)(的)(移)(民)(产)(生)(一)(定)(负)(面)(影)(响)(。因)(此)(,未)(来)(移)(民)(优)(势)(减)(弱)(,国)(内)(失)(业)(率)(创)(历)(史)(新)(低)(,难)(以)(满)(足)(美)(国)(制)(造)(业)(复)(兴)(所)(需)(劳)(动)(力)(要)(求)(。
整)(体)(而)(言)(,劳)(动)(力)(人)(口)(结)(构)(与)(外)(贸)(高)(度)(相)(关)(,中)(美)(两)(国)(过)(往)(发)(展)(都)(受)(益)(于)(人)(口)(红)(利)(。中)(国)(人)(力)(成)(本)(低)(使)(得)(劳)(动)(密)(集)(型)(的)(低)(端)(制)(造)(业)(发)(达)(,而)(美)(国)(劳)(动)(人)(口)(占)(比)(始)(终)(保)(持)(稳)(定)(水)(平)(,重)(要)(补)(充)(力)(量)(来)(自)(于)(年)(轻)(移)(民)(。展)(望)(未)(来)(,二)(孩)(政)(策)(改)(变)(不)(了)(中)(国)(青)(壮)(年)(劳)(动)(力)(人)(口)(比)(例)(下)(降)(趋)(势)(,但)(中)(国)(中)(国)(工)(程)(师)(的)(数)(量)(和)(工)(资)(成)(本)(优)(势)(明)(显)(;相)(反)(,目)(前)(美)(国)(就)(业)(市)(场)(相)(对)(充)(分)(,而)(且)(移)(民)(政)(策)(相)(对)(严)(厉)(,不)(利)(于)(补)(充)(劳)(动)(力)(,尽)(管)(美)(国)(希)(望)(制)(造)(业)(回)(流)(,但)(人)(口)(结)(构)(并)(不)(支)(撑)(制)(造)(业)(回)(流)(。(完)()
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